Four-Month Merchandise Trade Deficit Expands by 15.97 Percent
Pakistan’s cumulative merchandise trade deficit for the first four months of fiscal year 2027 (July–October 2026) reached $14,628 million, or PKR 4,069,079 million, according to provisional foreign trade statistics compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This represents an increase of 15.97 percent in US dollar terms and 14.09 percent in Pakistani rupee terms compared to the negative balance of $12,614 million (PKR 3,566,561 million) recorded during July–October 2025. [1]
Total merchandise imports between July and October 2026 totaled $25,964 million, compared to $23,060 million in the corresponding four-month period of the preceding year. This reflects a cumulative expansion of 12.59 percent in US dollar value and a 10.72 percent rise in local currency terms, up from PKR 6,516,677 million to PKR 7,214,952 million. Concurrently, merchandise exports reached $11,336 million (PKR 3,145,873 million), rising by 8.52 percent in dollar terms and 6.64 percent in rupee terms above the $10,446 million (PKR 2,950,116 million) recorded across July–October 2025. [1]
Monthly Merchandise Inflows and Deficit Widening in October 2026
In October 2026 alone, the goods trade deficit widened to $3,877 million (PKR 1,076,222 million). This marks an expansion of 10.30 percent in US dollar terms and 10.15 percent in rupee terms compared to the September 2026 shortfall of $3,515 million (PKR 977,069 million). When compared with the same month of the preceding year, the October deficit expanded by 19.70 percent in dollar terms and 17.87 percent in rupee terms from $3,239 million (PKR 913,097 million) recorded in October 2025. [1]
The monthly expansion in the deficit was driven by higher import bills. Merchandise imports during October 2026 stood at $6,806 million (PKR 1,887,552 million), up 5.72 percent in dollar terms and 5.58 percent in rupee terms compared to $6,438 million (PKR 1,787,826 million) in September 2026. Relative to October 2025, when imports totaled $6,087 million (PKR 1,713,648 million), import values grew by 11.81 percent in dollar terms and 10.15 percent in rupee terms. [1]
In contrast to rising import volumes, outbound shipments showed flat sequential momentum. Merchandise exports during October 2026 stood at $2,929 million (PKR 811,330 million), representing a minor month-on-month rise of 0.21 percent in dollar terms and 0.07 percent in rupee terms from September’s final tally of $2,923 million (PKR 810,757 million). On a year-on-year basis, October exports increased by 2.84 percent in dollar terms and 1.35 percent in rupee terms compared to $2,848 million (PKR 800,551 million) registered in October 2025. [1]
Reporting Coverage and Exclusions in Merchandise Data
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics documented specific institutional and operational caveats regarding the provisional October 2026 merchandise trade results. The bureau officially noted that data from the Directorate of Research and Statistics (DRS) at the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in Islamabad for October 2026 was still awaited at the time of publication. [1]
Additionally, due to procedural delays within the data reporting mechanism, the figures published in the October summary exclude both import and export transactions from the country's Export Processing Zones (EPZs). The bureau stated that these missing EPZ figures will be incorporated in subsequent monthly statistical updates, while also noting that individual totals and percentages may show minor variances due to rounding effects. [1]
Quarterly Services Trade Balance Marginally Narrows
Alongside goods statistics, official compilations for Pakistan’s trade in services through the first quarter of FY27 (July–September 2026) showed a minor reduction in the quarterly services shortfall. The cumulative services trade deficit narrowed by 0.33 percent in US dollar terms and 2.01 percent in Pakistani rupee terms to $832.16 million (PKR 231,270 million), compared with $834.88 million (PKR 236,023 million) in July–September 2025. [2]
Total services exports for the July–September 2026 quarter rose to $2,717.24 million (PKR 755,168 million), registering a year-on-year increase of 22.60 percent in US dollar terms and 20.52 percent in rupee terms against the $2,216.40 million (PKR 626,581 million) recorded during the corresponding period of FY26. Total services imports during the quarter expanded by 16.32 percent in dollar terms and 14.36 percent in rupee terms, climbing from $3,051.29 million (PKR 862,605 million) to $3,549.40 million (PKR 986,438 million). [2]
Monthly Services Deficit Expands in September 2026
For the individual month of September 2026, the monthly trade deficit in services climbed to $282.76 million (PKR 78,493 million). This represented an increase of 3.73 percent in US dollar terms and 3.61 percent in rupee terms above the revised August 2026 deficit of $272.60 million (PKR 75,761 million). Compared with September 2025, when the deficit was $153.39 million (PKR 43,202 million), the monthly shortfall broadened by 84.34 percent in dollar terms and 81.69 percent in rupee terms. [2]
Services exports in September 2026 totaled $929.87 million (PKR 258,126 million), rising 9.48 percent in dollar terms over August 2026 ($849.37 million) and 15.35 percent year-on-year from September 2025 ($806.14 million). Services imports for the month stood at $1,212.63 million (PKR 336,619 million), up 8.08 percent month-on-month compared to August ($1,121.97 million) and up 26.38 percent from September 2025 ($959.53 million). PBS noted that dollar figures were converted into rupees using the State Bank of Pakistan's monthly floating average exchange rates, which stood at PKR 277.59 per dollar in September 2026, PKR 277.92 in August 2026, and PKR 281.65 in September 2025. [2]
Sources and reporting periods
- [1] Summary on Merchandise Trade Statistics October 2026 — published 2026-11-06; reporting period: July–October 2026.
- [2] Summary Trade in Services September 2026 — published 2026-11-06; reporting period: July–September 2026.
