Headline Consumer Inflation Slows Below Double Digits
Pakistan’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 9.61% on a year-on-year basis in October 2026, moderating from 10.3% reported in September 2026 and comparing to 6.24% documented in October 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the national index grew by 1.08%, with the general index reaching 307.62 compared to 304.33 in September 2026. For the cumulative four-month period of July to October 2026-2027, average annual CPI inflation stood at 10.05%, compared to 4.79% during the corresponding period of fiscal year 2025-2026 and 8.68% during July to October 2024-2025. [1]
The urban consumer index rose 9.50% year-on-year and 0.81% month-on-month, bringing the urban general index level to 302.53 from 300.11 in September 2026 and 276.28 in October 2025. Meanwhile, the rural consumer price index showed stronger momentum, rising 9.76% year-on-year and 1.49% over the prior month to reach 315.31. Across the first four months of the fiscal year, average urban inflation reached 9.69%, while the rural average increased to 10.58%, up sharply from 4.89% and 4.63% in the previous year, respectively. [1]
Core Inflation Measures and Quintile Sensitive Indicators
Underlying price pressures exhibited divergence across analytical measures. Urban core inflation, measured by non-food non-energy (NFNE), increased by 7.8% year-on-year in October 2026 compared to 8.6% in September and 7.5% in October 2025. Rural NFNE inflation moderated to 7.1% year-on-year from 8.1% in the prior month and 8.4% in October 2025. On a month-on-month basis, urban NFNE edged up 0.4%, while rural NFNE moved up 0.3%. [1]
The 20% weighted trimmed mean core inflation measure registered 8.5% year-on-year in urban regions, down from 9.4% in September, while the monthly change was 0.5%. In rural regions, trimmed mean core inflation stood at 8.9% year-on-year compared to 9.4% in September, though it rose 1.0% on a monthly basis. Across the lowest expenditure quintile (quintile 1), the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) rose 8.75% year-on-year and 1.26% month-on-month, closing at an index level of 356.61. [1]
For higher consumption brackets, the SPI recorded steeper yearly expansions. Quintile 2 increased by 10.57% year-on-year, quintile 3 by 9.37%, quintile 4 by 9.87%, and quintile 5 registered an advance of 12.32%. The combined SPI across all expenditure groups registered an 11.67% year-on-year increase and an advance of 1.89% over September 2026, finishing the month at 372.61. Weekly tracking during October 2026 documented week-on-week changes for the combined SPI of 0.21%, 0.57%, -0.04%, 0.65%, and -0.35% across the successive reporting periods. [1]
Divergent Trends Across Food and Non-Food Basket Components
Within the urban consumer basket, significant upward month-on-month movements were recorded in food staples such as live broiler chicken (19.38%), pulse gram (9.17%), wheat (9.01%), wheat flour (7.54%), and fresh vegetables (6.55%). Other monthly advances occurred in eggs (5.72%), besan (5.54%), and whole gram (4.19%). Conversely, sharp price reductions were documented for tomatoes (-31.63%), onions (-4.23%), potatoes (-4.04%), and refined sugar (-2.17%). On a yearly basis, urban onion prices remained 81.89% higher, while tomato prices dropped 55.12% below October 2025 levels. [1]
In the rural consumer basket, food and non-alcoholic beverages carried an overall weight of 40.87%, rising 2.83% month-on-month and 7.46% year-on-year. Fresh vegetables led rural monthly increases with a 19.59% surge, alongside live broiler chicken at 16.91%, fresh fruits at 9.43%, wheat flour at 9.41%, and wheat grain at 9.00%. In contrast, rural prices dropped for tomatoes (-29.63%), potatoes (-9.25%), onions (-6.51%), gur (-2.02%), and sugar (-1.32%) on a month-on-month basis. [1]
Essential retail monitoring across 17 urban centres showed national average wheat flour bag prices at PKR 2,882.68 per 20 kg in October 2026, up 7.24% from PKR 2,687.98 in September and 34.34% higher year-on-year from PKR 2,145.81. Refined sugar averaged PKR 142.27 per kg, down 2.25% month-on-month, while live broiler chicken averaged PKR 402.93 per kg, reflecting a 16.28% month-on-month increase from PKR 346.52. Farm eggs averaged PKR 260.00 per dozen, rising 3.13% over September but down 21.07% compared to October 2025. [2]
Wholesale Price Inflation and Urban Energy Benchmarks
In contrast to headline CPI moderation, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) picked up pace, advancing 13.79% year-on-year in October 2026 compared to 13.3% in September and 1.10% in October 2025. Over the month, WPI rose 0.92%, with the general index reaching 360.68. The primary driver was other transportable goods, carrying a 22.40% weight, which climbed 2.72% over the month and 38.64% year-on-year, contributing 9.18 percentage points to the annual increase. On an annual basis, wholesale kerosene oil escalated by 79.37%, furnace oil by 74.55%, and diesel oil by 55.45%. [1]
Urban inter-city construction and energy price tracking revealed regulated fuel benchmarks holding flat across main urban centres at PKR 387.69 per litre for petrol super and PKR 396.20 per litre for high-speed diesel, as recorded across Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Attock, Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar. In contrast, national average retail prices reported across 17 urban centres documented petrol super at PKR 389.19 per litre (a 3.67% monthly increase) and high-speed diesel at PKR 398.52 per litre. Household fuel items such as 11.67 kg LPG cylinders averaged PKR 5,565.01 nationwide in October 2026—a 14.62% increase over September 2026 and 82.64% higher than October 2025. [2] [3]
Sources and reporting periods
- [1] Monthly Review on Price Indices October 2026 — published 2026-11-02; reporting period: October 2026.
- [2] Average Monthly Prices of 51 Essential Items for the Month of October 2026 — published 2026-11-02; reporting period: October 2026.
- [3] Urban Inter-City Consumer Prices of Construction and Energy Items October 2026 — published 2026-11-02; reporting period: October 2026.