Weekly Price Movement and Index Trajectory
Pakistan's short-term price pressure experienced a minor reprieve during the week ended 15 October 2026, with the benchmark combined Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) decreasing by 0.04% compared to the preceding week. Official data compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that the combined index eased from 372.58 points in the week ended 8 October 2026 to 372.43 points in the reporting period. Across the broader baseline, the annual rate of increase in the combined weekly index settled at 11.38% against the corresponding week of 16 October 2025. The monitoring umbrella covers 51 essential consumer items surveyed weekly across 50 markets spread through 17 urban centres nationwide. [1] [2]
The marginal week-on-week decline broke a string of consecutive weekly increases observed in late September and early October. Historical trend data released by PBS records that the combined index had expanded from 369.69 points on 24 September to 370.46 points on 1 October, and advanced further to 372.58 points on 8 October before the slight retreat in mid-October. Of the 51 monitored commodities, 23 items recorded price increases, 7 items registered declines, and 21 items remained unchanged during the week. Although price increases outnumbered declines, the magnitude of downward price corrections in key high-volume perishable vegetables pulled the overall composite index into negative territory. [2]
Variations Across Household Consumption Quintiles
Weekly price adjustments showed mild contraction across all five household consumption quintiles, though the impact was unevenly distributed when viewed over a 12-month horizon. For the lowest expenditure quintile (Q1), representing households with monthly spending up to PKR 17,732, the SPI fell by 0.06% from 356.56 points to 356.35 points week-on-week. This segment recorded an annual inflation rate of 8.19%, the lowest across all income strata. The second quintile (PKR 17,733 to PKR 22,888) slipped 0.04% over the week to 359.94 points, with an annual expansion of 10.11%. [2]
For middle- and upper-income groups, index variations reflected divergent expenditure weights. The third consumption quintile (PKR 22,889 to PKR 29,517) edged down by 0.01% to 380.62 points, showing an annual increase of 8.99%. The fourth quintile (PKR 29,518 to PKR 44,175) contracted by 0.02% to 368.03 points, representing a 9.54% rise year-on-year. In contrast, the highest expenditure quintile (Q5), covering households spending above PKR 44,175, fell by 0.06% during the week to 372.22 points but sustained the highest annual inflation rate among all groups at 12.09%, driven heavily by larger spending allocations toward transport fuels, dining, and utility components. [2]
Vegetable Declines Dampen Weekly Headline Index
The primary downward impetus on the weekly SPI emerged from significant corrections in perishable vegetable supplies. Farmgate arrivals and improved market distribution prompted a 23.05% drop in the average price of tomatoes, which plummeted from PKR 155.21 per kilogram to PKR 119.43 per kilogram. This single price decline subtracted 0.3473 percentage points from the lowest quintile index and 0.2266 percentage points from the combined index. Onion prices followed with a 4.90% weekly reduction, dropping from PKR 190.31 to PKR 180.99 per kilogram and easing the combined index by 0.0463 percentage points. [2] [3]
Other consumer goods posting modest reductions during the week included local bananas, which slipped 2.59% to PKR 131.26 per dozen. Super petrol prices fell 0.70% from PKR 398.87 to PKR 396.06 per litre, yielding a downward combined impact of 0.0686 percentage points due to its weight in higher-income budgets. Broken Basmati rice registered a 0.65% decline to PKR 215.52 per kilogram, while refined white sugar decreased by 0.62% to PKR 142.11 per kilogram. Gur concluded the list of weekly decreases, slipping 0.36% to PKR 227.62 per kilogram. Together, these seven declining commodities accounted for a cumulative negative impact of 0.3638 percentage points on the combined index. [2] [3]
Persistent Pressures in Grains, Pulses, and Proteins
Counteracting the perishable deflation were broad increases across essential staples, livestock products, and energy inputs. Leading the upward drivers was pulse gram, which advanced 4.97% week-on-week from PKR 286.06 to PKR 300.29 per kilogram. Bagged wheat flour exerted the largest upward pressure on the combined basket due to its heavy weighting, rising 3.36% during the week from PKR 2,851.04 to PKR 2,946.72 per 20-kilogram bag. This increase added 0.1290 percentage points to the combined index and 0.2082 percentage points to the lowest quintile's expenditure burden. Farm broiler live chicken climbed 3.31% to PKR 395.98 per kilogram, contributing 0.0848 percentage points to the combined change. [2] [3]
Incremental price increases were also noted in poultry eggs, which ticked up 0.99% to PKR 263.39 per dozen, along with washed pulse mash (up 0.98% to PKR 469.06 per kilogram) and washed pulse masoor (up 0.95% to PKR 268.53 per kilogram). Firewood bundles rose 0.69% to PKR 1,513.18 per 40 kilograms, while average shirting cloth gained 0.58% to PKR 548.58 per metre. Hotel meal prices edged higher, with cooked daal increasing 0.55% to PKR 178.73 per plate. Energy costs saw small adjustments, as high-speed diesel gained 0.47% to PKR 398.89 per litre and domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) 11.67-kilogram cylinders rose 0.42% to PKR 5,154.16. Prepared tea rounded out the notable increases, edging up 0.28% to PKR 66.87 per cup. [2] [3]
Annual Structural Shifts and Supplementary Indicators
The 11.38% annual increase in the weekly SPI reflects lingering pressure in non-perishable food, energy charges, and fuels over the past year. In the year-on-year comparison from 16 October 2025 to 15 October 2026, onions retained a steep gain of 75.19%, while domestic LPG cylinders surged 68.95% from PKR 3,050.70 to PKR 5,154.16. First-quintile electricity tariff charges remained 58.59% higher at PKR 7.66 per unit compared to PKR 4.83 per unit a year earlier. Transport fuels sustained elevated levels, with petrol up 49.60% and diesel up 43.98%. Bagged wheat flour also stood 35.13% above its year-ago price of PKR 2,180.64. Conversely, steep year-on-year drops in tomatoes (-63.65%), potatoes (-39.93%), refined sugar (-23.20%), and eggs (-19.83%) helped cap overall annual index expansion. [2] [3]
Supplementary market tracking detailed in the report's annexures showed steady or moderately rising construction and agricultural input costs. A 50-kilogram bag of ordinary cement averaged PKR 1,600, ticking up 0.27% on the week and 14.66% on the year. Urea fertilizer prices stood at PKR 4,780 per 50-kilogram bag for Sona Urea, flat week-on-week but 9.19% higher than a year earlier, while Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) edged down 0.06% on the week to PKR 17,118 per bag, remaining 17.98% higher annually. Urban daily labour rates held steady week-on-week at PKR 1,317 for an unskilled labourer and PKR 2,116 for a mason, representing year-on-year wage gains of 8.87% and 7.08% respectively. [3]
Sources and reporting periods
- [1] Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended on 15-10-2026 — published 2026-10-16; reporting period: Week ended 15 October 2026.
- [2] Executive Summary Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Week Ended on 15.10.2026 — published 2026-10-16; reporting period: Week ended 15 October 2026.
- [3] Annexure to SPI Report for Week Ended 15.10.2026 — published 2026-10-16; reporting period: Week ended 15 October 2026.